By E. Karakitsos, L. Varnavides
This e-book analyses delivery markets and their interdependence. This ground-breaking textual content develops a brand new macroeconomic method of maritime economics and gives the reader with a extra accomplished realizing of ways smooth transport markets function.
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Additional resources for Maritime Economics: A Macroeconomic Approach
In this context, expectations of exogenous variables pose a risk around the main scenario of economic policy. Risk scenarios can be computed by simulating the model under a different oil path. 9) for the sake of completeness. It is assumed that demand for shipping services, q, depends on aggregate demand in the world economy, x. 14) For reasons that will become clear in Chapter 3, expectations of the evolution of the fleet for a short horizon (for example, one year) relevant to the bargaining 32 KARAKITSOS AND VARNAVIDES of the owner and the charterer reflect past expectations of demand for shipping services.
For freight rates below point F, the supply is zero, as the owner does not cover the average variable cost. In the short run, the owner has to cover just the average variable cost and not the average total cost, which includes fixed costs. 3 the owner earns supernormal profits, which are measured by the rectangle CPAD. This is equal to the product of the cargo transported times the per unit profit. The latter is equal to the difference between the price and the average variable cost AD. These supernormal profits can only be earned in the short run.
Although most risk factors point to a negative risk premium the liquidity risk, in general, suggests a positive risk premium. Time charter contracts should be viewed as illiquid financial instruments and therefore they should demand compensation. Veenstra (1999a) takes this view and argues that in a time charter contract there is a loss of liquidity for the owner as it is difficult and costly to terminate an existing contract. However, this is not correct as both the owner and the charterer are exposed to liquidity risk and they take opposite positions.