Managing the Continuum: Certainty, Uncertainty, by Franco Caron

By Franco Caron

The short will describe tips on how to increase a threat research utilized to a undertaking , via a chain of steps: possibility administration making plans, hazard identity, possibility type, probability evaluation, possibility quantification, hazard reaction making plans, hazard tracking and regulate, technique shut out and classes studying. The undertaking threat research and administration strategy can be utilized to giant engineering tasks, specifically concerning the oil and fuel undefined. The short will tackle the general diversity of attainable occasions affecting the venture relocating from walk in the park (project concerns) via uncertainty (project hazards) to unpredictability (unforeseeable events), contemplating either destructive and optimistic occasions. a few quantitative thoughts (simulation, occasion tree, Bayesian inference, etc.) might be used to increase threat quantification. The short addresses a regular topic within the quarter of undertaking administration, just about huge engineering initiatives about the awareness of enormous vegetation and infrastructures. those initiatives are characterised via a excessive point of swap, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity. The short represents an extension of the fabric built for the direction undertaking chance research and administration of the grasp in Strategic venture administration (Erasmus Mundus) constructed together via Politecnico di Milano, Heriot Watt college (Edimburgh) and Umea (Sweden). The short can be utilized either in classes addressing undertaking administration matters and via practitioners as a consultant for constructing an efficient undertaking probability administration plan.

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Three general strategies to exploit flexibility in the decision making process may be identified (Olsson 2006): • Late locking • Continuous step by step locking • Contingency planning The first strategy implies an iterative exploration of the project alternatives during the front end phase. Once the project is locked, as late as possible, the execution phase requires the stability of the project plan for success. The second strategy is based on a sequence of “decision gates”, corresponding to the introduction of real options in the decision making process (see Chap.

Proceedings of PMI global congress EMEA, Milan, 10–12 May 2010,(2010), pp. K. S. Pindyck, in Expandability, reversibility and optimal choice in Project flexibility agency and competition, ed. J. Brennan, L. Trigeorgis (Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2000) T. J. Bennet, Real options in management and organizational strategy: a review of decision making and performance implications. Int. J. Manage. Rev. N. M. J. Voyer, A real options approach to valuing strategic flexibility in uncertain construction projects.

Examples of project stakeholders can be sponsors, managers, suppliers, subcontractors, partners, clients, shareholders, financial institutions, insurance companies, governments, labour unions, mass media, pressure groups, consumers, local communities, etc. Project management therefore, has a twofold focus: on the project objectives using the traditional planning and control techniques, and on the stakeholders, with whose commitment the project objectives can be realised (Leybourne 2010). Projects may fail because project management does not take the interests, objectives, expectations, attitudes, behaviours of stakeholders sufficiently into account.

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