By Aiden Warren, Ingvild Bode (auth.)
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Extra info for Governing the Use-of-Force in International Relations: The Post 9/11 US Challenge on International Law
In fact, it is possible to assume that there are three distinct thresholds at which the motivation for the target state to take preventive or preemptive action: First, when the probable proliferator draws 38 Governing the Use-of-Force in International Relations near completion of the nuclear fuel cycle during the Research and Development stage – as in the 1981 Osirak Bombing and the 1994 North Korean nuclear crisis. ” Second, when the proliferator deploys nuclear weapons and the applicable delivery systems to its arsenal or to strategic launch sites during the Production and Deployment stage – as in the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis and the 1969 Sino-Soviet Border Crisis.
Is the gradual deterioration of . . ”8 Preemption, on the other hand, aims to disrupt an actual imminent military threat. It is an attempt to seize the military initiative in order to gain strategic advantage, ideally through surprise attack, and to avoid conceding the initiative to the adversary which could have possibly disastrous results. 9 Preemption, in the most basic sense, is nothing more than a quick draw. ”11 As stated again by Levy: [P]re-emption involves the initiation of military action because it is perceived that an adversary’s attack is imminent and that there are advantages to striking ﬁrst or at least in preventing the adversary from doing so .
It is essential to assess the threat in its distinct parts, so as to clearly identify and understand the sensitivity of the threat assessment to changes in these factors. Imminence is a temporal not a consequential condition. The ramiﬁcations of a “rogue” state or terrorist nuclear attack may be of critical – indeed, decisive – signiﬁcance in the overall assessment of emerging threats, and will continue to be considered as a potential foundation for allowing some form of anticipatory self-defense.