Dependability Modelling under Uncertainty: An Imprecise by Philipp Limbourg

By Philipp Limbourg

Mechatronic layout procedures became shorter and extra parallelized, prompted via becoming time-to-market strain. tools that permit quantitative research in early layout phases are required, may still dependability analyses objective to steer the layout. a result of constrained quantity of information during this part, the extent of uncertainty is excessive and specific modeling of those uncertainties turns into necessary.

This paintings introduces new uncertainty-preserving dependability equipment for early layout phases. those contain the propagation of uncertainty via dependability versions, the activation of knowledge from comparable elements for analyses and the mixing of doubtful dependability predictions into an optimization framework. it truly is proven that Dempster-Shafer conception may be an alternative choice to chance concept in early layout level dependability predictions. professional estimates could be represented, enter uncertainty is propagated in the course of the method and prediction uncertainty should be measured and interpreted. The ensuing coherent technique should be utilized to symbolize the uncertainty in dependability models.

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Redundancy). Fault removal. Means to reduce the number and severity of faults (e. g. functional testing). Fault forecasting. Means to estimate the present number, the future incidence, and the likely consequences of faults (e. g. fault tree analysis). Fault prevention and fault tolerance play key roles in mechatronic systems. All domains have developed mature concepts for fault prevention that are either operational (oversizing) or developmental (software design patterns) and fault tolerance. Fault removal is very important in later project stages and there are sophisticated methods for testing and fixing.

It leads to the prediction and thus to the prevention of the introduction of faults before the first prototype is produced. Fault forecasting grows in importance with the size of the project and its financial constraints. Fault prevention is only economically justifiable up to a certain amount [80]. Fault forecasting thus can be seen as the mean to discover possible dependability flaws in the design and to find the most efficient locations for fault prevention and fault tolerance. The main part of this thesis falls into the category of fault forecasting, namely quantitative dependability analysis based on DST.

Plotted on the x-axis and y-axis are the marginal values, the z-axis gives the joint probability obtained by the copula. A visual interpretation of the Fr´echet bounds C− and C+ is that each possible copula function (e. g. CP ) is completely located in the space that is spanned by these functions. But copulas are only useful if they ease specify dependencies and thus add further degrees of freedom for the estimator. It is therefore necessary to use copulas which can be parametrized. Among the different copula families, the most popular copulas are the Archimedean copulas, the Gaussian copula and the t-copula [49].

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